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Main Event Spotlight | UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2
Take A Closer Look At The UFC Lightweight Title Rematch Between 155-Pound Champion Islam Makhachev And Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski
The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi on October 21 for a rematch between lightweight champion Islam Makhachev and the current featherweight champion and No. 2 pound-for-pound ranked fighter in the world, Alexander Volkanovski.
Makhachev, who is riding a 12-fight win streak, the longest active streak in the UFC, was originally scheduled to rematch Brazilian superstar Charles Oliveira, who UFC President Dana White revealed on Tuesday was removed from the bout after suffering a gruesome cut on his eyebrow in training.
Stepping in on less than two weeks’ notice is Volkanovski, the 145-pound champ who has successfully defended his title five times, which is two shy of Jose Aldo’s featherweight record of seven title defenses.
Order UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2
While this fight came together on very short notice, Volkanovski and Makhachev have history, and “Alexander The Great” has been eyeing a rematch ever since their first fight in February. While not necessarily in a training camp at the time he received the call to step in, it’s safe to assume Volkanovski has focused a fair amount of time in the gym on a gameplan for an eventual rematch with Makhachev.
“Respect for taking this fight on short notice Alex, but don’t use it as an excuse after the fight,” Makhachev told Volkanovski on Instagram.
At UFC 284, Makhachev earned a unanimous decision victory over Volkanovski in Perth, Australia. While all three judges believe Makhachev won the fight, it was much closer than the scorecards would suggest.
When looking at the fight as a whole, Volkanovski out-struck Makhachev 164-95 in total strikes, 70-57 in significant strikes and recorded the only knockdown of the fight. It was in the wrestling exchanges where Makhachev was able to log rounds, while Volkanovski was doing just as well, or even better, on the feet.
RECAP: Last Time In Abu Dhabi | UFC 30th Anniversary
In rounds one and two, for example, strikes landed were essentially even, with Volkanovski landing one more than Makhachev over 10 minutes. Makhachev, however, used his elite wrestling to take Volkanovski down and rack up two additional minutes of ground control time, effectively winning both rounds on all three judges’ scorecards.
“Of course, I will try to finish him [this time],” Makhachev told Daniel Cormier on DC & RC. “After the last fight we had many questions, but I will give all answers in Abu Dhabi.”
We asked one question when Oliveira was still slated to challenge Makhachev in a rematch, and the same goes for Volkanovski: why would the result be different the second time around? As seen throughout 30 years of UFC, on any given night, one fighter can completely flip the script and pull away with the win.
By no means does luck have to play a role for Volkanovski, though, as he found success in each and every round against Makhachev the first time around. As we’ve seen in his three epic bouts against Max Holloway, Volkanovski has unlocked a new level of striking that’s helped him pull away from the rest of the pack in the featherweight division. Volkanovski’s 6.25 strikes landed per minute is well above the UFC average of 3.4 and nearly triple Makhachev’s 2.35. Nearly 74 percent of those strikes landed for Volkanovski are at distance, with 63 percent targeted to the head.
With that being said, Makhachev is no slouch on the feet, either. Despite only landing 2.35 strikes per minute, Makhachev lands nearly 60 percent of the strikes he throws, the second highest accuracy in lightweight history, while only absorbing 1.29 per minute in return.
Athlete Profiles: Islam Makhachev | Alexander Volkanovski
This opens the door for Makhachev’s elite wrestling to take effect. After gaining respect on the feet, Makhachev is just as efficient with his takedowns as he is with his strikes. Makhachev has secured 30 of 48 takedowns at lightweight, or 62.5 percent, which is the third highest in lightweight history.
While not on the same level as Makhachev, Volkanovski has exceptional takedown defense, which was evident in their first fight. Volkanovski stuffed five of Makhachev’s nine takedown attempts. Not only that, but Volkanovski chose to grapple with Makhachev in the fifth round after knocking him down. While in top position, Volkanovski landed strikes and amassed over a minute and a half of control time.
Islam Makhachev Reacts To Volkanovski Replacing Oliveira At UFC 294 | DC & RC on ESPN
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Islam Makhachev Reacts To Volkanovski Replacing Oliveira At UFC 294 | DC & RC on ESPN
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So, what does Volkanovski need to do differently? It’s easier said than done, but if he can replicate his success on the feet and avoid even one or two less takedowns compared to the first fight, then he has a very good chance at walking away with the victory.
What plagued him in February was how long he spent on his back despite only being taken down four times. In round two, strikes landed and control time were completely even, yet Makhachev was the one to secure a takedown. Stuffing that takedown or cutting some time away from Makhachev’s control time could’ve won Volkanovski the round and the fight.
As we said for Makhachev when previewing his matchup with Oliveira, his game plan is a little bit easier to break down: do exactly what you did last time; Stay competitive on the feet, mix in takedowns when you can and keep Volkanovski on the ground for as long as possible. If he can continue to do those things, Makhachev will retain his title.
“This guy is really tough,” Makhachev told Cormier. “If you want to stop him, you have to choke him or knock him out. This guy is gonna fight five rounds. I cannot say this about Oliveira because if you make him feel a little bit, he’s always going to give up. But this guy, he’s going to five rounds.”
Since we’ve seen this matchup before, the most compelling feature this time around is the lack of time they’ve had to prepare for one another. While Makhachev nearly completed a full training camp for Oliveira and is physically peaking at the right time, he wasn’t training for a shorter, physically stronger striker that gave him issues in the past.
For Volkanovski, he lost the first matchup, so not having adequate time to curate the perfect gameplan could make things more difficult. Or will his unpredictability and “nothing to lose” mentality make him even more dangerous this time around?
All those questions will be answered next Saturday at UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski in Abu Dhabi.
UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 took place live from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE on October 21, 2023. See the Final Results, Official Scorecards and Who Won Bonuses - and relive the action on UFC Fight Pass!
