Where We Stand: Lightweight Division | April 2024

Outlook: After a banner 2023, Makhachev knew he had a bevy of lightweight contenders eagerly awaiting his next fight. The first to do so was Poirier, when he knocked out Benoît Saint Denis, and the timing was such that Makhachev will now face “The Diamond” for his third title defense. Makhachev will try to match his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov in title defenses, as well as in picking up a win over Poirier, whom Nurmagomedov submitted in September 2019.

1) Arman Tsarukyan      

Last Fight: Split Decision Win vs Charles Oliveira (4/13/2024)

Next fight: N/A

Outlook: Tsarukyan needed to clear one more hurdle to prove himself as an elite lightweight, and the 27-year-old did just that in edging Charles Oliveira via split decision. He faced early adversity, falling into a deep guillotine attempt, but his poise and technique shone through as he escaped and mounted his own attacks. Surviving that from “Do Bronxs” is no small feat, and he now likely has a title shot in the future. Whether that comes against Makhachev (which is a highly anticipated rematch) or against Poirier should his American Top Team teammate get it done in Newark, we shall see.

Outlook: Luck is part of the fight game, and Oliveira got a taste of it for the worse at UFC 300. After an injury knocked him out of a title fight rematch with Makhachev, the Brazilian gave Tsarukyan a shot at the lightweight elite and was unable to thwart the rising Armenian. That doesn’t mean options are limited for the former lightweight champion. He already holds wins over Poirier and Justin Gaethje, so his path to the top could prove clearer than not if things shake his way. If he doesn’t opt to wait and see, though, he could fight fellow Top 5 member Mateusz Gamrot, which stylistically might play into his hands a bit given his jiu jitsu prowess.

Outlook: “The Highlight” took a big risk in defending his BMF title against Max Holloway. He not only risked the symbolic belt, but he also put his position in the lightweight title race on the line. Gaethje very well could’ve challenged for the lightweight title in Poirier’s stead if Oliveira never had to pull out of the rematch with Makhachev. But, those things did happen, as did his fight with Holloway. Gaethje found himself on the backfoot for most of his matchup with the former featherweight champion, and with his knockout loss with a second to go, he found himself more than likely on the outside looking in at the title picture. That said, he still holds a win over Poirier in the last year, which could set up a trilogy nicely if Poirier can dethrone Makhachev. However, considering the result against Holloway, Gaethje might take some time to recover and return to a different-looking Top 5, depending on how things play out over the next 4-6 months. 

Outlook: Oh, how quickly things can change. Nine months ago, Poirier was on the wrong end of a knockout loss to Gaethje. After an emphatic turnaround win in a risky fight against Saint Denis, Poirier is looking at his third shot at undisputed gold. The former interim champion has long chased the title, and the 35-year-old might be staring at his last shot at the belt.

Outlook: Gamrot looked good enough in his win against the timeless Rafael Dos Anjos. Although the aesthetics of Gamrot shooting for takedowns wasn’t the sharpest, it was the kind of gritty and high-effort performance that displayed what makes him such a difficult matchup. He will now likely get a chance at another top lightweight. Whether it’s someone in the Top 5 like Oliveira or Gaethje, or someone on the outside like Benoît Saint Denis, Gamrot is a couple big wins away from getting a shout at the title shot.