UFC 317 Best Bets | DraftKings Sportsbook

Topuria is coming off arguably the most impressive two-fight stretch in UFC history, knocking out both Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in featherweight title fights. Volkanovski and Holloway had ruled the featherweight division for over a half decade and the manner in which Topuria beat both of them was highly impressive. Topuria is one of the hardest punchers in the history of the lighter-weight classes, which was fully on display in his KO of Holloway. Holloway is notorious for his iron chin and had barely even been wobbled in the UFC prior to his knockout loss to Topuria. 

Topuria is also a strong defensive fighter, which shows up in his striking metrics. Topuria has avoided 64% of opponent significant strike attempts, one of the best rates among all active UFC fighters. Topuria hides his chin behind his bone structure, especially his lead shoulder, and does an excellent job deflecting strikes to his head. This was best on display in his fight vs. Holloway, where Holloway struggled to land clean, landing only 38% of his significant strike attempts, noticeably below his career average of 47%. 

This fight is widely expected to end in a finish, with -575 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to not go the distance. It’s easy to see why—both Topuria and Oliveira are potent finishers. Oliveira holds the record for most finishes in UFC history with 20 and has finished about 90% of his UFC wins. Oliveira also holds the record for most wins via submission in UFC history with 16. Oliveira is an excellent jiu-jitsu black belt and uses his grappling for potent offense, actively hunting submissions during his fights. Oliveira’s dangerous bottom game generally makes opponents hesitant to take the fight to the ground, which can give Oliveira margin for error when clipped with a strike, as some opponents allow Oliveira to stand back up, which gives Oliveira time to recover. Oliveira has also developed very good striking, most notably showcasing his striking progression in his wins over Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler and Beneil Dariush.

The difference in this fight could come down to defense. Oliveira’s striking defense is not nearly as good as Topuria’s, avoiding 49% of opponent significant strike attempts, compared to 64% for Topuria. Oliveira has also been prone to getting wobbled, even during his winning streak from 2018 to 2022. Oliveira got knocked down four times in nine fights during that stretch, including in his wins against Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje and in his loss to Islam Makhachev.

Oliveira has evolved into a resilient fighter, and despite Topuria’s potent punching power, each of Topuria’s last four fights have made it past the first round. Oliveira is tough enough to last past the first round, and taking Topuria to win and over 5.5 total minutes could be a way to get the Moneyline down from a heavy -400 to close to even money at -105. 

Pick: Ilia Topuria to win and over 5.5 total minutes (-105)

Other main card bet to consider: Kai Kara-France +5.5 Point Spread (+105)

Read about UFC Point Spread betting at DraftKings Network: How to Bet UFC Point Spreads on DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Fantasy UFC

Kai Kara-France is the fourth-cheapest fighter on the DraftKings fantasy UFC slate at only $7,200, but his fight vs. Alexandre Pantoja could be closer than the salaries indicate. Kara-France is an excellent striker and has good defensive metrics, avoiding 65% of opponent significant strike attempts and stopping 88% of opponent takedown attempts. If Kara-France can make this primarily a distance striking match, he is a live underdog and could provide strong fantasy value. This fight is also five rounds, which could potentially create 10 extra minutes to generate fantasy scoring. 

The main DraftKings fantasy UFC tournament has a huge prize pool of $700,000 this week, with the winner getting $200,000. Enter the contest for only $25 here.

DraftKings UFC Pick6

UFC Pick6 is a new peer-to-peer fantasy UFC contest where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of at least two fighters and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Listed stat projections include significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and more. For each fighter, simply select if you think they’ll have MORE or LESS than their listed stat projection. Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ cash prizes!

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.