UFC 316 Best Bets | DraftKings Sportsbook

Harrison is one of the most physically imposing athletes in the history of women’s MMA and combines elite athleticism with high-level grappling technique. As an Olympic gold medalist in judo, Harrison has an elite clinch game and uses her grappling and physical advantages to smother opponents. In two UFC fights, Harrison has recorded a control time percentage of approximately 68%, an elite number, and has averaged about three takedowns per 15 minutes. Because Harrison has been so good at controlling her opponents, Harrison has barely absorbed any significant strikes, absorbing only one significant strike per minute. 

Harrison will enter this fight against Pena in position to execute a similar grappling-heavy strategy. Pena does not have strong takedown defense, stopping only 23% of opponent takedown attempts, and there’s a good chance Harrison will ragdoll Pena with her superior athleticism, strength, and grappling technique. Three of Harrison’s last four fights have gone the distance, and taking Harrison to win by decision carries appealing plus-money odds. Harrison to win and over 2.5 total rounds is also an option.

Pick: Kayla Harrison to win by decision (+215)

Other bet to consider: Kayla Harrison to win and over 2.5 total rounds (-105)

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley 2

O'Malley suffered a torn labrum in his hip prior to his first fight against Dvalishvili but managed the injury and fought through it. The injury appeared to affect O'Malley in the fight, as O'Malley’s usual excellent footwork, movement and ringcraft looked diminished. After the fight, O'Malley underwent surgery to repair the injury. O'Malley’s physical condition could have massive implications for this fight. O'Malley’s footwork, feints and movement are among the best in the sport, and if his hip is fully healthy again, he could be in line for a significantly better showing in the rematch. 

O'Malley has a substantial range and height advantage over Dvalishvili, which was noticeable in their first fight. O'Malley’s best moment in the fight came in the fifth round where O'Malley landed a piercing front-snap kick to Dvalishvili’s body that hurt Dvalishvili so badly that he began looking up at the clock. This could be something we see more of in the rematch, especially given O'Malley’s length advantage. O'Malley was also close to connecting with several knee strikes to the head, which is another strike that fits well into his height advantage. For O'Malley to have a good chance to win the rematch, he will need to maintain strong ringcraft to avoid grappling scenarios and hurt Dvalishvili from distance. 

The biggest X-factor will be O'Malley’s defensive grappling. Dvalishvili’s wrestling, cardio and pace are so good that he will likely continue to take O'Malley down, and O'Malley is going to have to find ways to quickly get back to his feet and reestablish his distance striking game.

There are signs that this rematch could be a lot closer to even than the -285 odds on Dvalishvili to win indicate. O'Malley won two of the last three rounds on two of the three judges’ scorecards in their first fight and outstruck Dvalishvili 45 to 29 from distance, including badly hurting Dvalishvili to the body in Round 5. O'Malley could be a live underdog in this rematch, especially with a presumably healthy hip. Taking the Sean O'Malley +5.5 point spread gives coverage in the event O'Malley loses a close decision. O'Malley covered the point spread in their first fight despite having an injured hip.

Pick: Sean O'Malley +5.5 Point Spread (-120)

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