UFC 269 Main Card Best Bets: DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds, Picks, Preview

O’Malley has elite striking metrics. O’Malley has landed over eight significant strikes per minute, which is massive striking volume. O’Malley’s strikes landed to absorbed ratio is also elite at better than 2-to-1. Raulian Paiva has absorbed more strikes than he has landed, which is a red flag in his metrics.

O’Malley will have the length advantage, carrying about a three-inch advantage in both reach and height, which puts him in good position to outpoint Paiva with striking volume from distance. Paiva has been difficult to finish—his only career loss via TKO was by doctor stoppage due to a cut—so taking O’Malley to win by decision at plus money based on striking volume from distance is a way to get the moneyline down from about -300.

Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt

Kai Kara-France moneyline (+115)

Kara-France is facing former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt, who is dropping down a weight class after a losing streak at bantamweight. Since this is Garbrandt’s first fight at flyweight, there is some uncertainty as to how he will look in his new weight class. The drop down to flyweight could be beneficial for Garbrandt’s career, but despite having to face smaller opponents, dropping down a weight class is not always a great thing. Sometimes, fighters are not able to shake off strikes as well with a smaller frame and become more prone to getting knocked out. This happened to TJ Dillashaw in his flyweight fight against Henry Cejudo—Dillashaw cited his weight cut as the reason he quickly lost by KO/TKO, because dehydration can make fighters more susceptible to a knockout. Garbrandt lost three consecutive fights by TKO at bantamweight during his losing streak, and dropping down a weight class could further diminish his ability to eat strikes.

Kara-France has better striking metrics than Garbrandt, posting a better strikes landed to absorbed ratio and landing a solid five significant strikes per minute. Garbrandt has absorbed more strikes than he has landed, which is a red flag. Kara-France also has a longer reach despite being the shorter fighter, holding a four-inch reach advantage over Garbrandt. Kara-France is in a good position to win as the underdog given his better striking metrics, reach advantage and the uncertainty regarding Garbrandt’s new weight cut.

Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier

Charles Oliveira moneyline (+140)

Oliveira is the king of UFC finishes, holding the record for most finishes in UFC history with 17. Oliveira has gone to decision just three times in 28 total UFC fights and has finished roughly 90% of his UFC wins. Most of Oliveira’s finishes are submissions, and he is also the UFC submission king, holding the record for most wins via submission in UFC history with 14. Oliveira is a BJJ black belt and uses his jiu jitsu for potent offense, actively hunting submissions during his fights, even when he has his opponent hurt from strikes.

Oliveira is also a good striker and has pop. Oliveira has showcased this pop recently, finishing three of his last five fights by TKO/KO. All of Oliveira’s UFC wins by KO/TKO have come within his last five fights, which shows that his striking has developed. Oliveira has not lost a fight in four years, going a perfect 9-0 with eight finishes over that stretch.

Oliveira has a tough matchup against Dustin Poirier. Poirier’s only loss since 2016 was to the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov, and he had several impressive wins during that span over top fighters like Conor McGregor, Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje. Poirier is very well-rounded, has strong cardio and does not have any major weaknesses.

Despite the tough matchup, this fight is probably more even than the betting odds indicate. Oliveira is the underdog, so betting Oliveira to win on the moneyline gives bettors a plus-money bet. Poirier has been finished four times in the UFC, so there is also an avenue for a finish for the king of UFC finishes.

DraftKings Fantasy MMA

Amanda Nunes ($9,500)

Nunes is widely considered to be the greatest women’s fighter in UFC history and is a huge favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, carrying a moneyline of about -1000. Nunes is ridiculously safe in DraftKings fantasy UFC contests and carries fantasy upside. Julianna Peña has very poor takedown defense on a rate basis, stopping just 23% of opponent takedown attempts, giving Nunes a path for takedowns and control time if she chooses to grapple. Nunes is averaging a solid 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has recorded as many as eight takedowns in a single fight. Nunes also hits very hard and will have a significant advantage on the feet. In addition, this fight is five rounds, which potentially creates 10 extra minutes to generate fantasy scoring.

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