Paddy Power's UFC 165 Preview

Reigning UFC light heavyweight champion and pound-for-pound number one Jon Jones has taken on all comers. Five of his last six fights have been against former light heavyweight champions and the sixth was his comprehensive beating of Chael Sonnen.

Despite having an 18-1 record on paper, Jon Jones has never been beaten in a professional mixed martial arts contest. (That single loss was a technical DQ loss to Matt Hamill, an opponent he, by all accounts, beat soundly.)

The question posed before every Jones fight is how exactly do you beat him? To date, no one has been able to provide an answer. He out-strikes strikers, out-wrestles wrestlers and -- in fighting off the first round armbar from Vitor Belfort -- he showed he has a ton of heart too. He’s a tall fighter who knows how to exploit his range and he can finish a fight anywhere: Nine knockouts and six submissions are testaments to that.

Much the same can be said of his latest opponent, Alexander Gustafsson. The 6’5” Swede carries a very similar record of 15-1 into the fight at UFC 165 in Toronto, Canada. Similarly rangy, Gustafsson is also good on his feet and on the ground. In 16 fights he has lost just once (to now-training partner Phil Davis), winning nine times by knockout with three subs.

Many believe “The Mauler’s” size and skill set will cause the champion problems and nullify many of Jones’ strengths. At 9/2 to win, there’s value to be had if you fancy Gustafsson to cause an upset. Going on his record, Gustafsson’s most likely course of victory is via KO at 9/1, though you may want to hedge your bets and take Gustafsson to win by KO or on points at 5/1.

Gustafsson’s only defeat was via submission. Jones is short at 1/7 to win but you can get him at 11/8 to win with a submission.

Where you can make money on a Jones victory is if you can pick the round he wins in. His opponent has been the full three rounds in each of his last two fights and his cardio has looked solid. If he is going to tire in this five-rounder, it’s unlikely to come before the fight moves in to the championship frames. Jones to win in the 4th round is 15/2 or to win in the 5th round is 10/1.

We’ve seen in recent months that nobody is unbeatable -- both Jones and Gustafsson will be fully aware of this. The challenger certainly has the tools to cause an upset but the odds are very much in Jones’ favour.

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