Examining the Heavyweight Landscape Ahead of UFC Freedom 250

From a raw tools perspective, he’s upside is off the charts, but there is no way to accurately forecast what the future may hold because (1) he’s only faced warm bodies to date and (2) we have yet to learn if he can take a real punch, and those are two things that have to be sussed out before we go fitting him for a championship belt.

Ellison is a slight step up from the weekend warriors he’s faced to date, but he lasted less than two minutes in his promotional debut last September, so it's unlikely this fight tells us much other than confirming that Steveson is a tremendous prospect. Part of me wants to see him given the Hokit treatment, but another part of me wonders if he'll look to go the Bo Nickal route and slowly work his way forward, gaining experience while fighting a couple of times a year and making incremental progress up the divisional ranks.

That’s easier to do at middleweight than heavyweight, but it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad option, especially if he has any kind of struggles early.

THE REST OF THE NAMES TO KNOW

Rather than rolling everyone else out one-by-one as I did for the lightweight division, I'm going to create some groupings that will provide a snapshot of how the division stacks up at the moment and outline how I think things could progress in the next couple of years.

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The Champion Emeritus: Tom Aspinall

Every time I think about Aspinall being sidelined, it sucks because he's a tremendous fighter and someone who was profiled as a potential long-reigning champion before getting poked in the eye last October.

We still don’t have a timetable for his return, and the longer it goes, the less certain I am that we will see him again. That's not reporting — that's my gut feeling as a longtime observer of this sport and a feeling I hate, for the record.

The Clubhouse Leaders: Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich

The dual Russians solidified their places in the pecking order in May, with Volkov earning a decision win over Waldo Cortes Acosta and Pavlovich mauling Tallison Teixeira in Macau. They're stationed at Nos. 2 and 3 in the rankings, respectively, and the former has a win over the latter in the bank already.

Both kinds have to bide their time right now and wait for some dominoes to fall. There are a handful of options available based on how things play out in D.C. and what Aspinall's future looks like, but none of that can be sorted until things start to fall into place.

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The Mainstays, Part I: Waldo Cortes Acosta, Serghei Spivac, Curtis Blaydes

These are the guys who, along with Lewis, currently stand as the established talents outside of the title conversation, but ahead of the up-and-coming set until proven otherwise. While the tendency is often to match people in proximity to one another in the rankings up together, the division got real stale, real quick, the last time that was happening in earnest, and the better course of action (IMO) would be to get these guys in some of the more promising newcomers and see how things unfold.

Worst case? The veterans win, and there is a real clear delineation of talent in the division for the time being, but if a couple of hopefuls get over, then we'll have some new pairings to consider.

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The Newcomers, Part I: Rizvan Kuniev, Tyrell Fortune

I'm putting them together and separating them from the group that follows because they're both currently in the Top 10 and coming off wins over established names, Kuniev having beaten Jailton Almeida and Fortune having bested Marcin Tybura.

Kuniev has already fought Blaydes, but pitting each of them against one of “The Mainstays” feels like a smart way to proceed. The other option is having them face one another in a bit of a Highlander situation where (for the time being) there can only be one moving forward.

The Mainstays, Part II: Ante Delija, Marcin Tybura

The European veterans currently reside in the lower third of the rankings, where they are valuable members of the divisional ecosystem as the first real test for any of the hopefuls that don't get catapulted into the thick of things, Hokit style. We’ve twisted the meaning of the word “journeyman” into something perceived as insulting, but Delija and Tybura are quintessential journeyman heavyweights and are set to serve their roles as such later this summer; more on that momentarily.

The Newcomers, Part II: Valter Walker, Brando Pericic

Currently positioned side-by-side at Nos. 13 and 14 in the rankings, Walker has won four consecutive bouts — all by heel hook — but has yet to face anyone of great consequence, while Pericic has picked up three wins in nine months, all by way of finish. Both show promise, but it’s impossible to know where their respective ceilings rest until they step in with someone more established.

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Welcome to the Division: Johnny Walker, Aleksandar Rakić

The former light heavyweights are set to make their divisional debuts in Belgrade, Serbia, this summer, with Walker facing Delija and Rakic meeting Tybura. Those are excellent initial matchups that should provide an immediate understanding of what each man may be able to do (or not do) in the division while also giving the mainstays a chance to earn wins over established names without running them right back out there against the next two emerging names in the queue.

Each man has the frame for a move to heavyweight; it’s just a matter of how the skills transfer and how they hold up against bigger opposition.

Unranked, but Interesting: Ryan Spann, Vitor Petrino, Mario Pinto

Spann is a highly skilled former light heavyweight who has earned back-to-back stoppages after dropping his divisional debut to Cortes Acosta last year. One more solid performance and he could be due a ranked opponent.

A Dana White's Contender Series grad who moved to heavyweight last year, Petrino is 3-0 so far in the division. He is still green as a fighter; he's also only 28 years old, which is a baby for a heavyweight. Slow and steady remains the right approach.

Pinto is also 3-0 after graduating from the Contender Series. After stopping Austen Lane and Jhonata Diniz in his first two appearances, the Portuguese fighter, who trains and resides in London, had a bit of a tepid showing in March against late replacement Felipe Franco. He’s also 28, so the same slow-and-steady approach should be taken.

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