Championship fights are layered battles with the competitors stepping into the Octagon operating at the highest level in their respective weight classes. Breaking down how these pivotal contests could possibly play out is a challenging venture, which is why UFC staff writer E. Spencer Kyte has taken to enlisting the help of some of the sharpest minds in the sport to help dissect these critical contests.
Before Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes share the Octagon for a second time with the UFC featherweight title hanging in the balance, Tyson Chartier, head coach of the New England Cartel, drops in to break down the UFC 325 main event.
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Best Trait of Each Fighter
Kyte: All right Coach, it’s time to get into it. UFC 325, featherweight title on the line — what’s the best trait of Alexander Volkanovski and what the best trait of Diego Lopes?
Chartier: For Volkanovski, I think you have to bring up his experience and his body of work. He’s been in there with literally the two best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport right now. He’s well rounded, but it’s really hard to ignore his experience and his resume.
For Lopes, it’s hard to ignore his ground game. He’s looking better on the feet, but he’s a great grappler. He’s turning into a great MMA fighter, but I think his standup is getting better because people are staying away from the takedowns, and his grappling is so good.
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Kyte: So with Volk, I agree that the experience is an insane factor — it’s his 11th consecutive title fight — and it’s also part of what makes his IQ and his decision-making so good, which is what I think stands out the most in his fights—his ability to make adjustments on the fly in the middle of fights.
There might not be someone on the sport that has more of an understanding of how to win than Volk, and it comes from that experience as you’re saying — he’s been in there at the highest level, against the best guys, and largely been able to figure it out. He’s smart, works hard, plays to his strengths — he never gets out over his skis. It’s just smarts, all the time.
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Chartier: When Calvin (Kattar) was on his run, and we were looking at Volk as a possible opponent, I was always very impressed with how prepared they came in, but with slightly different game plans based on who they were fighting.
Kyte: The weapons are the same, but how they deploy them is always a little different.
Chartier: Yeah! They’re really coy with how they approach a fight and always come in with a good plan, but you can never predict what it’s going to be, and that says a lot about Joe (Lopez), his head coach.
Kyte: For sure. I agree with you on Lopes too that his ground game is insane, though we haven’t seen as much of it. We saw it last fight when he got the big takedown — and I think it’s really smart that he’s working with the Oklahoma State wrestling team because if you can’t get to your spots, get the fight to the ground, your grappling is limited — but the thing I worry about with the development of the striking is that it feels like he’s…
Chartier: The Josh Koscheck Effect?
Kyte: Yeah! He’s falling in love with it. He walloped some of those early opponents — Pat Sabbatini, Sodiq (Yusuff) — and now he’s more focused on it.
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We saw it in the fight with Jean Silva: he wins the first round — dominates; he almost finishes — and then he gets away from it to throw hands and gets in trouble. I wonder if someone in that corner just goes, “Hey man — here’s the first round and this is what happened, so maybe let’s dance with the girl we brought, yeah?”
That was his thing when he got here, that’s what threatened (Movsar) Evloev: he was always attacking off his back, has terrific hips, never accepting positions.
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One Coaching Curiosity
Chartier: This kind of gets into my curiosity for this fight, but I wrote down, “Will Lopes shoot this fight?”
He didn’t shoot once. You’re fighting Volkanovski, you’re trying to get a world title, you have a great ground game — why are you not even (thinking about it)? When you’re doing well in the striking, it’s because the threat of the takedown is there.
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Let’s say for whatever reason, you didn’t want to do it — you’re injured, can’t really grapple; at least threaten it.
Kyte: You have to.
Chartier: So that’s my curiosity — will he wrestle? Will he at least show a takedown to try and level the playing field? I think he should try.
Kyte: A hundred percent. One hundred percent he should.
Chartier: I’m just blown away that he didn’t the first time.
Kyte: I was so confused in the first round of that fight because he’s a guy that traditionally starts really quick, puts you on your heels, and makes you react to him, expend energy; we didn’t get any of that.
Some of that is nerves, being in that position, right? On the marquee, win and you’re world champion, facing one of the best to ever do it and you just freeze up a little, get a little tight. Fine. It happens. We talk about it all the time for a reason. But how are you not even exploring it?
Chartier: Right.
Kyte: My kind of offshoot of the not wrestling thing for this fight is what are the lessons from that first one? What are the takeaways and how are you gonna show me that you grew from that?
You’ve been here now. Now it can’t be deer in the headlights. And now it’s your second shot at this dude in less than a year and if you lose this one, you’re in a weird space. Like he won’t be out of the title picture forever, but you can’t keep coming up short and not capitalizing on these opportunities.
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He’s talented enough to beat Volk. He’s dangerous enough to beat Volk.
Chartier: I think he’s catch Volk at the right time. Three, four years ago, I think it’s a different story.
Kyte: Oh, for sure! That’s true for everyone right now except Ilia because he just may be the truth. But this is when he’s getting him and if he fights like the Diego Lopes that worked his way up, he can win this fight.
You gotta make the right decisions, you gotta do the right things, and that includes, as you said, grappling. At least threaten it. At least make him think, make him react, even if it’s just getting into a clinch to make him carry your weight a little bit.
Chartier: I think he’s gotta show the threat of a takedown early just to make Volk think about it.
Kyte: Honestly? I would come out and try to flying triangle him or jump his back as soon as I can, just to say, “You’ve gotta think about this now.”
That was part of the thing with Paddy (Pimblett) and (Justin) Gaethje on Saturday that we talked about: we’re not wrestling at all? We’re not grappling at all? There were those front headlock sequences where even I know — and they talked about on the broadcast — that you can work to attack something or even get to a spot where you can pull him into your guard from there.
Chartier: It’s such a weird thing fighters do at times; it’s like they say, “F it!” and abandon things they’re good at in different fights. Sometimes it’s an anomaly, sometimes it’s a trend, but Lopes is in that Josh Koscheck era where it’s easier to stand and bang. The people love it!
But you can see it in his last fight: he was getting hurt bad in the second round. Wrestled well in the first round, almost of the finish. He got hurt in the second round waiting. Another part of that too is Silva did well going to the body, and I think that’s something Joe will see, so I’m anxious to see if Volk works the body more this time.
Kyte: Yeah, because he’s a big dude for this weight class too. It’s a tough cut, you’ve got all the travel, though he’s been over there for a while, but it’s still not the same as Volk living there.
Path to Victory
Kyte: This feels like it dovetails nicely with what we’ve just been talking about, so what the path to victory for each guy here?
Chartier: For Volk, I said he’s gotta look to win rounds and make it boring. If he can just control, score points, touch-touch-wrestle, push him against the fence — he even does a bunch of fake entries where he’s shooting, but he’s not really trying to take you down; it’s just to keep you honest.
It’s basically just how he fought the last fight: mix it up when you can and if the takedown is there, he’s gonna take it, and if not, he’ll let it go. Just be the champ, use your experience, win rounds, score points, win exchanges and be okay with being boring.
And it’s the opposite for Lopes. I think he’s gotta make it ugly and he’s gotta look for a finish. I think if the fight stays even, Volk’s experience is gonna win those moments, and he knows how to steal rounds, eke out moments and win. If you look at the success he had in the last fight, it was in chaotic moments, chaotic exchanges, and he was landing shots.
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When he made it ugly, he was good.
Kyte: He’s a chaos fighter. He’s one of those guys where it kind of needs to be messy. When he tries to be technical and polished, it doesn’t work as well.
Chartier: He needs to make it ugly.
Kyte: And I think it’s more from a — it’s not that he can’t fight technically, it’s that the other guy probably can too, and he probably does better int that kind of fight than he does dealing with you being a wild banshee in there. And you seem to thrive in chaos, so play to your strength.
Chartier: I think some fighters — and I’ve had fighters like this — where if you ask them to go out there and touch’em with a two, it’s gonna look forced; it’s gonna look slow. But if you say, “We’re gonna counter” and they get a reactionary two out, it’s like a bullet coming out of the chamber.
Kyte: Right.
Chartier: With Lopes, he can go first and look good, but if you watch him when he’s trying to land a big right hand, it almost looks forced, it’s not as clean. But when you get him in a little boxing exchange and he can counter, it looks way better.
I think he has better reactionary punching than he does proactive punching. When he gets in that scramble, that exchange where both guys are winging it, I think he’s a naturally more powerful puncher in those moments than if you said, “Hey, go lead the dance.” That’s why it doesn’t surprise me that he’s better in the chaos.
Kyte: Yeah, he’s better when he’s not thinking about things; when he’s just out there getting into a fight. One hundred percent.
X Factor
Kyte: Okay, so what’s the x-factor here?
Chartier: I think it’s whether Lopes mixes in wrestling. Is he gonna go out there and try to box again? He didn’t even really kick much, he was mostly trying to box, but is he gonna attempt to wrestle?
If he comes out and doesn’t threaten wrestling, I think it’s gonna be the same as the last fight. I think it’s gonna be a little more one-sided on Volk’s end because “okay, he’s doing the same things” and he’s gonna have a better plan because he’s faced him once already. I think it really comes down to the wrestling. I don’t see Lopes having a clear path to victory if he doesn’t wrestle; you have to hope you catch him.
Kyte: If he fights the same overall approach as the first fight, we get the same result, for sure. Nothing changes if you don’t change things, so he’s gotta change things.
Chartier: Yep.
Kyte: I will add, on my side, just because it’s always there and I do want to acknowledge it before hand — Volk’s another year older and as much as I like that he didn’t hustle back, at some point, Father Time comes for you. He’s bucked the trend a bunch, but at some point he won’t.
Chartier: He’s not the guy we ever have to worry about him not showing up prepared, but he did get hurt in the last fight, he did get rocked by Ilia (Topuria) and so is the chin there still?
Kyte: To be clear — it’s not a concern that he’s chinny and can’t take any shots, but he’s 37, he’s been in 10 straight title fights, a bunch of them went all five rounds; he’s been in there a lot, there is lots of wear and tear. He rocked you last time. You’re another year older; does it come into play?
Chartier: Yep.
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Kyte: I don’t think the gap is that big between these two guys. Three or four years ago, different story, but this weekend? The gap isn’t that big and you have to consider these things. If Diego makes some adjustments, he can win this fight.
Chartier: Yeah — I would love it if Alex was Alex for another five years, but at some point, all fighters aren’t what they used to be. I don’t think this is the fight where we start saying he doesn’t quite have it all any more, but we’ll see.
Kyte: I’m really curious to see how this one plays out. We don’t have to wait too much longer now.
Thanks for doing this.
Chartier: Any time, brother.
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 took place live from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia on January 31, 2026. See the final Prelim & Main Card Results, Official Scorecards and Who Won Bonuses - and relive the action on UFC FIGHT PASS!
